In the ‘Is consensus on land in Britain possible?’ session at the 2023 Oxford Farming Conference, Sir Charles Godfray outlined his perspective on how common ground can be found between those that care about farming and those who are more focused on the environment.

He talked about how the challenges and opportunities for farming could impact land use moving forward and raised the issue of what the UK’s role is in addressing the global demand for food.  

The global role of UK agriculture

While global population is set to plateau within this century, the demand for food is set to increase by 30 to 60% by 2050 as people come out of poverty. Sir Godfray urged the audience to consider a question which he believed is not asked often enough - ‘What is the UK’s role in addressing rising global demand for food?’ – and outlined three broad responses:

  • UK agriculture, as one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural systems in the world, should aim to produce 30 to 40% more food to contribute towards meeting the increasing global demand for food
  • The UK has a relatively static population, which will plateau before the global, so should continue producing the quantity of food produced now
  • UK agriculture should be deintensified, to create space for nature and to enable recovery of lost biodiversity, accepting that this approach will impact yields

How policy makers answer this question will influence land use decisions over the medium to long term, however demand for food and biodiversity loss are not the only factors at play.

Climate and UK land use

Sir Godfray predicted that climate change is going to have increasing prominence within agricultural and land use policies.

Many companies have already made a commitment to reach net zero emissions by a specified date. For those in the food sector, this will mean increasingly turning towards their scope three emissions – the on-farm emissions where their ingredients are produced – to achieve their target. This will influence future buying patterns. For example, meat and dairy substitutes are set to increasingly disrupt the markets, especially for processed foods.

Adoption of new technologies to produced food could also disrupt the agricultural industry, such as use of indoor vertical farming systems to grow salads and herbs.

Meanwhile, the government has committed to the UK reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Sir Godfray stresses that as elimination of all emissions is unachievable, a means of pulling greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere – negative emissions - will be imperative for the UK to meet this target. Although there are emissions capture technologies in development, photosynthesis is the only reliable way to remove carbon from the atmosphere currently available at scale. So we can expect future policy to support locking up carbon through land use.  

Biodiversity and UK land use

Sir Godfray pointed to an increasing realisation around the importance of biodiversity. He noted that there are two aspects of biodiversity – the services provided by a diverse agricultural ecosystem, such as pollination and water purification, and the intrinsic value of nature itself. 

He also endorsed the concept of ‘public money for public good’, arguing that it makes economic sense by paying farmers and landowners for the ecosystem services which the market doesn’t pay for.

What does it mean for land to be productive?

Finally, Sir Godfray argued that all land must be productive, but that productivity means more than just producing food. He noted that land used to provide public goods like carbon storage, flood alleviation and biodiversity can also be counted as productive.

Rather than taking a rigid view on how all land should be used, he stressed the importance of being realistic about the trade-offs and working out the comparative advantages of using different types of land in different ways. He outlined three contrasting scenarios, although noted that land use decisions are really on a spectrum spanning between each of these.

Scenario one - Land chiefly managed for sustainable food production

Sir Godfray described maximising food production in a technologically agnostic way, which can use both agri-tech and agroecological methods to achieve sustainable food production. This would be knowledge intensive, to be able to maximise yields via sustainable methods. Farming in this way would attract limited or no public good payments.

Scenario two - Land managed for multiple outputs

When farming for multiple outputs, which includes food, ecosystem services and natural capital, Sir Godfray highlighted the need to be honest about the trade-offs, as managing land to increase biodiversity, carbon storage and alleviate flooding will mean a reduction in yields. The money which would previously have gone to single farm payments should be diverted to reward farmers and landowners for public goods produced on farms.  Managing land for multiple outputs is also knowledge intensive, as both agroecological and technological thinking will be required and there’s a need for the provision of ecosystem services to be measured.

Scenario three - Land chiefly managed for non-food outputs

At the moment, only 3% of UK land is classified as semi-natural habitat. Sir Godfray shared that there is an opportunity to increase the area of biodiversity-rich habitats like woodlands and peatlands. He said that rewilding a further 2 to 3% of land area could be highly effective at restoring lost biodiversity, and could be done in a way that keeps people on the land and benefits rural communities too. Once again, this would be knowledge intensive, as ecological expertise will be required to measure biodiversity gains.

It's striking that all three scenarios require a high level of knowledge to effectively implement them. It’s also clear that maintaining the status quo is not an option, but there is real opportunity for agricultural and environmental focused communities to come together and find the right solutions for the land they influence.